Portsmouth vs Burton Albion — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 139+ matches
Portsmouth52%
Burton Albion24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Portsmouth creates 60% more chances
Season form · 139 home / 179 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Portsmouth ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Portsmouth at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 139 matches
Burton Albion away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.60 · 179 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Portsmouth attack 1.71 + Burton Albion defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66
Burton Albion attack 1.09 + Portsmouth defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Portsmouth at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Luton
Barnsley
CharltonPortsmouth
Sunderland
Doncaster
Peterborough
CoventryBurton Albion
Blackpool
Fleetwood Town
Oxford United
Gillingham
Accrington ST
Bristol Rovers
Rochdale
Wycombe
Shrewsbury
Southend
AFC Wimbledon
Plymouth
Walsall
Scunthorpe
BradfordIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Portsmouth host Burton Albion on Tuesday, 17 September 2019 at 18:45. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
League One: Portsmouth 2–2 Burton Albion
Portsmouth and Burton Albion drew 2-2 in League One on September 17, 2019.
Goals: J. Sbarra (3'), K. Wallace (6'), R. Curtis (39'), B. Pitman (90+5' pen).
Portsmouth controlled possession (70%) and registered 28 shots to 4.
The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.