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Portsmouth vs Bolton — Championship 2024

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
Preview
15:00
Bolton
Bolton
2/6/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 30Fratton Park
Big match
54%
Portsmouth
model favours
54%25%21%
1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Portsmouth54%
×Draw25%
Bolton21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.61
Bolton
0.91

Portsmouth creates 77% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 20 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.28
Bolton
0.75

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.06
Bolton
1.95

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
79%
Portsmouth or Bolton
75%
Draw or Bolton
46%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
29%
Bolton wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
80%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
48%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
22%
Bolton 1+ goals
60%
Bolton 2+ goals
23%
Bolton 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
72%
Bolton (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches

Bolton away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.28 + Bolton defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.61

Bolton attack 0.75 + Portsmouth defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Portsmouth scores more
54%
level
25%
Bolton scores more
21%

Portsmouth at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Portsmouth
Balanced
Bolton
Direct / counter-attacking
49%Possession38%
73%Pass accuracy64%
12.3ShotsBiggest gap9.5
1.14xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PortsmouthBolton

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Portsmouth
1
Draws
2
Bolton
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%
1–12–03–10–30–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Portsmouth
LWDWL
Bolton
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portsmouth face Bolton (Championship)

Championship returns with Portsmouth hosting Bolton. Match starts February 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Portsmouth host Bolton at Fratton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.