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Portsmouth vs Bolton — League One 2018

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bolton
Bolton
9/28/2019League OneLeague One · Round 11Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Portsmouth48%
×Draw25%
Bolton27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.56
Bolton
1.10

Portsmouth creates 42% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 136 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.72
Bolton
1.19

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.01
Bolton
1.40

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
73%
Portsmouth or Bolton
75%
Draw or Bolton
52%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
25%
Bolton wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
79%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
46%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
21%
Bolton 1+ goals
67%
Bolton 2+ goals
30%
Bolton 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
64%
Bolton (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.72 + Bolton defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bolton attack 1.19 + Portsmouth defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Portsmouth scores more
48%
level
25%
Bolton scores more
27%

Portsmouth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Bolton

Portsmouth beat Bolton 1-0 in League One on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.