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Porto Football U20 vs Mauá U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Porto Football U20
Porto Football U20
Preview
18:00
Mauá U20
Mauá U20
8/11/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 11
52%
Porto Football U20
model favours
52%28%20%

Mauá U20 score first in only 31% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Porto Football U2052%
×Draw28%
Mauá U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Porto Football U20
1.39
Mauá U20
0.74

Porto Football U20 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

creates per match

Porto Football U20
1.00
Mauá U20
0.61

allows per match

Porto Football U20
0.88
Mauá U20
1.78

finishing

Porto Football U20+0.00on par
Mauá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 61Yes: 3961%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porto Football U20 ↓

Mauá U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Porto Football U20 or draw
80%
Porto Football U20 or Mauá U20
72%
Draw or Mauá U20
48%

Winning margin

Porto Football U20 wins by 2+
26%
Mauá U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Porto Football U20 1+ goals
75%
Porto Football U20 2+ goals
40%
Porto Football U20 3+ goals
16%
Mauá U20 1+ goals
52%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
17%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Porto Football U20 (draw refunded)
72%
Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porto Football U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Mauá U20 away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porto Football U20 attack 1.00 + Mauá U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mauá U20 attack 0.61 + Porto Football U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Porto Football U20 scores more
52%
level
28%
Mauá U20 scores more
20%

Porto Football U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Porto Football U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Porto Football U20 sit 42, Mauá U20 23 in the table
  • Porto Football U20 and Mauá U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LLLLL
U20
LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Porto Football U20 host Mauá U20

August 11, 2026: Porto Football U20 take on Mauá U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.