Portmore United 1–0 Harbour View: Result & Stats

Portmore United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Harbour View

2/18/2024

Premier League · Round 19Ferdie Neita Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Portmore United47%

×Draw28%

Harbour View25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portmore UnitedExpected goals in this matchHarbour View

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.90

Portmore United

1.35

Harbour View

0.90

Portmore United creates 50% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 98 away

1.19

creates per match

1.02

0.78

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Portmore United

1.19

Harbour View

1.02

allows per match

Portmore United

0.78

Harbour View

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portmore United+0.00on par

Harbour View+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portmore United ↓

Harbour View →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Portmore United or draw

75%

Portmore United or Harbour View

72%

Draw or Harbour View

53%

Winning margin

Portmore United wins by 2+

22%

Harbour View wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Portmore United 1+ goals

74%

Portmore United 2+ goals

39%

Portmore United 3+ goals

15%

Harbour View 1+ goals

59%

Harbour View 2+ goals

23%

Harbour View 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Portmore United (draw refunded)

65%

Harbour View (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portmore United at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.78 · 100 matches

Harbour View away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.52 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portmore United attack 1.19 + Harbour View defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Harbour View attack 1.02 + Portmore United defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Portmore United scores more

47%

level

28%

Harbour View scores more

25%

Portmore United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Portmore United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff