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Portmany vs Santanyí — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Portmany
Portmany
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Santanyí
Santanyí
12/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 15Estadio Sant Antoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Portmany41%
×Draw27%
Santanyí32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portmany
1.32
Santanyí
1.14

Portmany creates 16% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 113 away

creates per match

Portmany
1.23
Santanyí
1.17

allows per match

Portmany
1.11
Santanyí
1.42

finishing

Portmany+0.00on par
Santanyí+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portmany ↓

Santanyí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Portmany or draw
68%
Portmany or Santanyí
73%
Draw or Santanyí
59%

Winning margin

Portmany wins by 2+
19%
Santanyí wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Portmany 1+ goals
73%
Portmany 2+ goals
38%
Portmany 3+ goals
15%
Santanyí 1+ goals
68%
Santanyí 2+ goals
32%
Santanyí 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Portmany (draw refunded)
56%
Santanyí (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portmany at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 113 matches

Santanyí away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portmany attack 1.23 + Santanyí defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Santanyí attack 1.17 + Portmany defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Portmany scores more
41%
level
27%
Santanyí scores more
32%

Portmany at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Portmany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Portmany 0–1 Santanyí

Santanyí beat Portmany 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Sant Antoni in Sant Antoni de Portmany.