Portmany 0–1 Mercadal: Result & Stats

Portmany

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mercadal

10/29/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 8Estadio Sant Antoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Portmany45%

×Draw28%

Mercadal27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortmanyExpected goals in this matchMercadal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.98

Portmany

1.34

Mercadal

0.98

Portmany creates 37% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 86 away

1.23

creates per match

0.84

1.11

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Portmany

1.23

Mercadal

0.84

allows per match

Portmany

1.11

Mercadal

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portmany+0.00on par

Mercadal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portmany ↓

Mercadal →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Portmany or draw

73%

Portmany or Mercadal

72%

Draw or Mercadal

55%

Winning margin

Portmany wins by 2+

21%

Mercadal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Portmany 1+ goals

74%

Portmany 2+ goals

39%

Portmany 3+ goals

15%

Mercadal 1+ goals

62%

Mercadal 2+ goals

26%

Mercadal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Portmany (draw refunded)

62%

Mercadal (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Portmany at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 113 matches

Mercadal away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Portmany attack 1.23 + Mercadal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Mercadal attack 0.84 + Portmany defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Portmany scores more

45%

level

28%

Mercadal scores more

27%

Portmany at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Portmany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff