Portmany 1–3 Mallorca II: Result & Stats

Portmany

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Mallorca II

5/16/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Sant Antoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Portmany24%

×Draw26%

Mallorca II51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortmanyExpected goals in this matchMallorca II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.54

Portmany

0.97

Mallorca II

1.54

Mallorca II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 80 away

1.23

creates per match

1.96

1.11

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Portmany

1.23

Mallorca II

1.96

allows per match

Portmany

1.11

Mallorca II

0.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portmany+0.00on par

Mallorca II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portmany ↓

Mallorca II →

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Portmany or draw

49%

Portmany or Mallorca II

74%

Draw or Mallorca II

76%

Winning margin

Portmany wins by 2+

Mallorca II wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Portmany 1+ goals

62%

Portmany 2+ goals

25%

Portmany 3+ goals

Mallorca II 1+ goals

79%

Mallorca II 2+ goals

45%

Mallorca II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Portmany (draw refunded)

32%

Mallorca II (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Portmany at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 113 matches

Mallorca II away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Portmany attack 1.23 + Mallorca II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.97

Mallorca II attack 1.96 + Portmany defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Portmany scores more

24%

level

26%

Mallorca II scores more

51%

Mallorca II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff