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Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids — Major League Soccer 2026

Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Colorado Rapids
Colorado Rapids
2/25/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 2Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Portland Timbers44%
×Draw24%
Colorado Rapids32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers
1.68
Colorado Rapids
1.41

Portland Timbers creates 19% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers
1.57
Colorado Rapids
1.35

allows per match

Portland Timbers
1.46
Colorado Rapids
1.79

finishing

Portland Timbers+0.11scores more
Colorado Rapids-0.15scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers ↓

Colorado Rapids →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Portland Timbers or draw
68%
Portland Timbers or Colorado Rapids
76%
Draw or Colorado Rapids
56%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers wins by 2+
23%
Colorado Rapids wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Portland Timbers 1+ goals
81%
Portland Timbers 2+ goals
50%
Portland Timbers 3+ goals
24%
Colorado Rapids 1+ goals
76%
Colorado Rapids 2+ goals
41%
Colorado Rapids 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)
58%
Colorado Rapids (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 25 matches

Colorado Rapids away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.79 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers attack 1.57 + Colorado Rapids defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.68

Colorado Rapids attack 1.35 + Portland Timbers defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Portland Timbers scores more
44%
level
24%
Colorado Rapids scores more
32%

Portland Timbers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portland Timbers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids

Portland Timbers beat Colorado Rapids 4-1 in Major League Soccer on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Providence Park in Portland, Oregon.