Portland Timbers III 4–1 Lane United

Portland Timbers III

FT

4 – 1

Lane United

6/20/2021

USL League Two · Round 32John Chambers Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Portland Timbers III61%

×Draw20%

Lane United19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland Timbers IIIExpected goals in this matchLane United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.13

Portland Timbers III

2.16

Lane United

1.13

Portland Timbers III creates 91% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

2.47

creates per match

1.39

0.87

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Portland Timbers III

2.47

Lane United

1.39

allows per match

Portland Timbers III

0.87

Lane United

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portland Timbers III+0.00on par

Lane United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers III ↓

Lane United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Portland Timbers III or draw

81%

Portland Timbers III or Lane United

80%

Draw or Lane United

39%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers III wins by 2+

38%

Lane United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Portland Timbers III 1+ goals

88%

Portland Timbers III 2+ goals

63%

Portland Timbers III 3+ goals

36%

Lane United 1+ goals

68%

Lane United 2+ goals

31%

Lane United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers III (draw refunded)

76%

Lane United (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers III at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Lane United away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers III attack 2.47 + Lane United defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.16

Lane United attack 1.39 + Portland Timbers III defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Portland Timbers III scores more

61%

level

20%

Lane United scores more

19%

Portland Timbers III at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Portland Timbers III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portland Timbers III vs Lane United

Portland Timbers III beat Lane United 4-1 in USL League Two on June 20, 2021.

The match was played at John Chambers Field in Salem, Oregon.

Portland Timbers III vs Lane United — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Portland Timbers III vs Lane United