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Portland Timbers II vs Ventura County — USL Championship 2018

Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II
FT
7 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Ventura County
Ventura County
5/18/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 16Providence Park (Portland, Oregon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Portland Timbers II44%
×Draw22%
Ventura County35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers II
1.98
Ventura County
1.74

Portland Timbers II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 77 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers II
1.91
Ventura County
1.39

allows per match

Portland Timbers II
2.09
Ventura County
2.04

finishing

Portland Timbers II+0.00on par
Ventura County+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers II ↓

Ventura County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Portland Timbers II or draw
65%
Portland Timbers II or Ventura County
78%
Draw or Ventura County
56%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers II wins by 2+
24%
Ventura County wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Portland Timbers II 1+ goals
86%
Portland Timbers II 2+ goals
59%
Portland Timbers II 3+ goals
31%
Ventura County 1+ goals
82%
Ventura County 2+ goals
52%
Ventura County 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)
56%
Ventura County (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers II at home — creates 1.91, concedes 2.09 · 43 matches

Ventura County away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.04 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers II attack 1.91 + Ventura County defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.98

Ventura County attack 1.39 + Portland Timbers II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Portland Timbers II scores more
44%
level
22%
Ventura County scores more
35%

Portland Timbers II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portland Timbers II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portland Timbers II vs Ventura County

Portland Timbers II beat Ventura County 7-3 in USL Championship on May 18, 2018.

The match was played at Providence Park (Portland, Oregon).