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Portland Timbers II vs Vancouver Whitecaps II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Vancouver Whitecaps II
Vancouver Whitecaps II
5/14/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 11Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Portland Timbers II48%
×Draw21%
Vancouver Whitecaps II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers II
2.09
Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.65

Portland Timbers II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 48 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers II
1.92
Vancouver Whitecaps II
1.44

allows per match

Portland Timbers II
1.85
Vancouver Whitecaps II
2.27

finishing

Portland Timbers II+0.00on par
Vancouver Whitecaps II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers II ↓

Vancouver Whitecaps II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Portland Timbers II or draw
69%
Portland Timbers II or Vancouver Whitecaps II
79%
Draw or Vancouver Whitecaps II
52%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers II wins by 2+
28%
Vancouver Whitecaps II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Portland Timbers II 1+ goals
88%
Portland Timbers II 2+ goals
62%
Portland Timbers II 3+ goals
34%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 1+ goals
81%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 2+ goals
49%
Vancouver Whitecaps II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)
61%
Vancouver Whitecaps II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.85 · 48 matches

Vancouver Whitecaps II away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.27 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers II attack 1.92 + Vancouver Whitecaps II defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.09

Vancouver Whitecaps II attack 1.44 + Portland Timbers II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Portland Timbers II scores more
48%
level
21%
Vancouver Whitecaps II scores more
31%

Portland Timbers II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Portland Timbers II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Portland Timbers II 3–1 Vancouver Whitecaps II

Portland Timbers II beat Vancouver Whitecaps II 3-1 in MLS Next Pro on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Providence Park in Portland, Oregon.