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Portland Timbers II vs The Town — MLS Next Pro 2022

Portland Timbers II
Portland Timbers II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
The Town
The Town
3/23/2024MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 2Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Portland Timbers II36%
×Draw22%
The Town42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Timbers II
1.69
The Town
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 54 away

creates per match

Portland Timbers II
1.92
The Town
1.80

allows per match

Portland Timbers II
1.85
The Town
1.46

finishing

Portland Timbers II+0.00on par
The Town+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Timbers II ↓

The Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Portland Timbers II or draw
58%
Portland Timbers II or The Town
78%
Draw or The Town
64%

Winning margin

Portland Timbers II wins by 2+
18%
The Town wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Portland Timbers II 1+ goals
82%
Portland Timbers II 2+ goals
50%
Portland Timbers II 3+ goals
24%
The Town 1+ goals
84%
The Town 2+ goals
54%
The Town 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Portland Timbers II (draw refunded)
46%
The Town (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Timbers II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.85 · 48 matches

The Town away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Timbers II attack 1.92 + The Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.69

The Town attack 1.80 + Portland Timbers II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Portland Timbers II scores more
36%
level
22%
The Town scores more
42%

The Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "The Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Portland Timbers II 1–3 The Town

The Town beat Portland Timbers II 3-1 in MLS Next Pro on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Providence Park in Portland, Oregon.