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Portland Thorns W vs San Diego Wave W — NWSL Women - Challenge Cup 2020

Portland Thorns W
Portland Thorns W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Diego Wave W
San Diego Wave W
7/22/2023NWSL Women - Challenge CupNWSL Women - Challenge Cup · Group Stage - 3Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Portland Thorns W59%
×Draw22%
San Diego Wave W18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Thorns W
1.90
San Diego Wave W
0.95

Portland Thorns W creates 100% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Portland Thorns W
1.80
San Diego Wave W
1.00

allows per match

Portland Thorns W
0.90
San Diego Wave W
2.00

finishing

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par
San Diego Wave W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Thorns W ↓

San Diego Wave W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Portland Thorns W or draw
82%
Portland Thorns W or San Diego Wave W
78%
Draw or San Diego Wave W
41%

Winning margin

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+
35%
San Diego Wave W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals
85%
Portland Thorns W 2+ goals
56%
Portland Thorns W 3+ goals
29%
San Diego Wave W 1+ goals
61%
San Diego Wave W 2+ goals
25%
San Diego Wave W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)
76%
San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Thorns W at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

San Diego Wave W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Thorns W attack 1.80 + San Diego Wave W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

San Diego Wave W attack 1.00 + Portland Thorns W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Portland Thorns W scores more
59%
level
22%
San Diego Wave W scores more
18%

Portland Thorns W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Portland Thorns W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portland Thorns W vs San Diego Wave W

Portland Thorns W beat San Diego Wave W 4-1 in NWSL Women - Challenge Cup on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Providence Park in Portland, Oregon.