Oskarshamns AIK 2–1 Husqvarna: Result & Stats

Oskarshamns AIK

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Husqvarna

P. Eliassi 28'

C. Christensson 21'

E. Hamidovic 64'

4/22/2017

Ettan - Södra · Round 2Arena Oskarshamn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Oskarshamns AIK54%

×Draw21%

Husqvarna25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oskarshamns AIKExpected goals in this matchHusqvarna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.42

Oskarshamns AIK

2.13

Husqvarna

1.42

Oskarshamns AIK creates 50% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 16 away

1.69

creates per match

1.31

1.53

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Oskarshamns AIK

1.69

Husqvarna

1.31

allows per match

Oskarshamns AIK

1.53

Husqvarna

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oskarshamns AIK+0.00on par

Husqvarna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oskarshamns AIK ↓

Husqvarna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Oskarshamns AIK or draw

75%

Oskarshamns AIK or Husqvarna

79%

Draw or Husqvarna

46%

Winning margin

Oskarshamns AIK wins by 2+

32%

Husqvarna wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Oskarshamns AIK 1+ goals

88%

Oskarshamns AIK 2+ goals

63%

Oskarshamns AIK 3+ goals

35%

Husqvarna 1+ goals

76%

Husqvarna 2+ goals

41%

Husqvarna 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Oskarshamns AIK (draw refunded)

68%

Husqvarna (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oskarshamns AIK at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.53 · 107 matches

Husqvarna away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oskarshamns AIK attack 1.69 + Husqvarna defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.13

Husqvarna attack 1.31 + Oskarshamns AIK defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Oskarshamns AIK scores more

54%

level

21%

Husqvarna scores more

25%

Oskarshamns AIK at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Oskarshamns AIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

C. Christensson

28'

P. Eliassi

64'

E. Hamidovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff