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Portland Phoenix vs Western Mass Pioneers — USL League Two 2018

Portland Phoenix
Portland Phoenix
PST
23:00
Western Mass Pioneers
Western Mass Pioneers
7/3/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 46Deering High School Memorial Field (Portland, Maine)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portland Phoenix33%
×Draw20%
Western Mass Pioneers47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Phoenix
1.90
Western Mass Pioneers
2.31

Western Mass Pioneers creates 22% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 50 away

creates per match

Portland Phoenix
3.00
Western Mass Pioneers
2.30

allows per match

Portland Phoenix
2.33
Western Mass Pioneers
0.80

finishing

Portland Phoenix+0.00on par
Western Mass Pioneers+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Phoenix ↓

Western Mass Pioneers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Portland Phoenix or draw
53%
Portland Phoenix or Western Mass Pioneers
80%
Draw or Western Mass Pioneers
67%

Winning margin

Portland Phoenix wins by 2+
17%
Western Mass Pioneers wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Portland Phoenix 1+ goals
85%
Portland Phoenix 2+ goals
56%
Portland Phoenix 3+ goals
29%
Western Mass Pioneers 1+ goals
90%
Western Mass Pioneers 2+ goals
67%
Western Mass Pioneers 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Portland Phoenix (draw refunded)
41%
Western Mass Pioneers (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Phoenix at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Western Mass Pioneers away — creates 2.30, concedes 0.80 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Phoenix attack 3.00 + Western Mass Pioneers defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Western Mass Pioneers attack 2.30 + Portland Phoenix defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Portland Phoenix scores more
33%
level
20%
Western Mass Pioneers scores more
47%

Western Mass Pioneers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Western Mass Pioneers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Portland Phoenix host Western Mass Pioneers

July 3, 2020: Portland Phoenix take on Western Mass Pioneers in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Portland Phoenix host Western Mass Pioneers at Deering High School Memorial Field (Portland, Maine).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.