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Portland Phoenix vs Seacoast United Phantoms — USL League Two 2018

Portland Phoenix
Portland Phoenix
PST
21:00
Seacoast United Phantoms
Seacoast United Phantoms
6/28/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 43Deering High School Memorial Field (Portland, Maine)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portland Phoenix39%
×Draw19%
Seacoast United Phantoms42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Phoenix
2.27
Seacoast United Phantoms
2.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 49 away

creates per match

Portland Phoenix
3.00
Seacoast United Phantoms
2.41

allows per match

Portland Phoenix
2.33
Seacoast United Phantoms
1.53

finishing

Portland Phoenix+0.00on par
Seacoast United Phantoms+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Phoenix ↓

Seacoast United Phantoms →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Portland Phoenix or draw
58%
Portland Phoenix or Seacoast United Phantoms
81%
Draw or Seacoast United Phantoms
61%

Winning margin

Portland Phoenix wins by 2+
22%
Seacoast United Phantoms wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Portland Phoenix 1+ goals
90%
Portland Phoenix 2+ goals
66%
Portland Phoenix 3+ goals
39%
Seacoast United Phantoms 1+ goals
91%
Seacoast United Phantoms 2+ goals
68%
Seacoast United Phantoms 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Portland Phoenix (draw refunded)
48%
Seacoast United Phantoms (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Phoenix at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Seacoast United Phantoms away — creates 2.41, concedes 1.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Phoenix attack 3.00 + Seacoast United Phantoms defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.27

Seacoast United Phantoms attack 2.41 + Portland Phoenix defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Portland Phoenix scores more
39%
level
19%
Seacoast United Phantoms scores more
42%

Seacoast United Phantoms at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Seacoast United Phantoms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portland Phoenix vs Seacoast United Phantoms — Match Preview

Portland Phoenix face Seacoast United Phantoms on June 28, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Portland Phoenix host Seacoast United Phantoms at Deering High School Memorial Field (Portland, Maine).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.