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Portland Phoenix vs Black Rock — USL League Two 2018

Portland Phoenix
Portland Phoenix
PST
22:00
Black Rock
Black Rock
6/6/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 22Deering High School Memorial Field (Portland, Maine)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portland Phoenix55%
×Draw19%
Black Rock27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Phoenix
2.56
Black Rock
1.77

Portland Phoenix creates 45% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 43 away

creates per match

Portland Phoenix
3.00
Black Rock
1.21

allows per match

Portland Phoenix
2.33
Black Rock
2.12

finishing

Portland Phoenix+0.00on par
Black Rock+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Phoenix ↓

Black Rock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Portland Phoenix or draw
73%
Portland Phoenix or Black Rock
81%
Draw or Black Rock
45%

Winning margin

Portland Phoenix wins by 2+
35%
Black Rock wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Portland Phoenix 1+ goals
92%
Portland Phoenix 2+ goals
72%
Portland Phoenix 3+ goals
46%
Black Rock 1+ goals
83%
Black Rock 2+ goals
53%
Black Rock 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Portland Phoenix (draw refunded)
67%
Black Rock (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Phoenix at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Black Rock away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.12 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Phoenix attack 3.00 + Black Rock defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.56

Black Rock attack 1.21 + Portland Phoenix defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Portland Phoenix scores more
55%
level
19%
Black Rock scores more
27%

Portland Phoenix at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Portland Phoenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portland Phoenix vs Black Rock — Match Preview

Portland Phoenix face Black Rock on June 6, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Portland Phoenix host Black Rock at Deering High School Memorial Field (Portland, Maine).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.