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Portland Phoenix vs AC Connecticut — USL League Two 2018

Portland Phoenix
Portland Phoenix
PST
22:00
AC Connecticut
AC Connecticut
6/14/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 31Deering High School Memorial Field (Portland, Maine)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portland Phoenix54%
×Draw19%
AC Connecticut27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portland Phoenix
2.60
AC Connecticut
1.81

Portland Phoenix creates 44% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 45 away

creates per match

Portland Phoenix
3.00
AC Connecticut
1.29

allows per match

Portland Phoenix
2.33
AC Connecticut
2.20

finishing

Portland Phoenix+0.00on par
AC Connecticut+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Phoenix ↓

AC Connecticut →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Portland Phoenix or draw
73%
Portland Phoenix or AC Connecticut
81%
Draw or AC Connecticut
46%

Winning margin

Portland Phoenix wins by 2+
35%
AC Connecticut wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Portland Phoenix 1+ goals
92%
Portland Phoenix 2+ goals
73%
Portland Phoenix 3+ goals
47%
AC Connecticut 1+ goals
84%
AC Connecticut 2+ goals
54%
AC Connecticut 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Portland Phoenix (draw refunded)
67%
AC Connecticut (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Phoenix at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

AC Connecticut away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Phoenix attack 3.00 + AC Connecticut defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.60

AC Connecticut attack 1.29 + Portland Phoenix defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Portland Phoenix scores more
54%
level
19%
AC Connecticut scores more
27%

Portland Phoenix at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Portland Phoenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portland Phoenix face AC Connecticut (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Portland Phoenix hosting AC Connecticut. Match starts June 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Portland Phoenix host AC Connecticut at Deering High School Memorial Field (Portland, Maine).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.