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Portimonense vs Chaves — Primeira Liga 2018

Portimonense
Portimonense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Chaves
Chaves
11/11/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 11Estádio Municipal de Portimão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Portimonense46%
×Draw27%
Chaves27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portimonense
1.42
Chaves
1.03

Portimonense creates 38% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 52 away

creates per match

Portimonense
1.12
Chaves
0.75

allows per match

Portimonense
1.31
Chaves
1.71

finishing

Portimonense+0.00on par
Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portimonense ↓

Chaves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Portimonense or draw
73%
Portimonense or Chaves
73%
Draw or Chaves
54%

Winning margin

Portimonense wins by 2+
22%
Chaves wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Portimonense 1+ goals
76%
Portimonense 2+ goals
41%
Portimonense 3+ goals
17%
Chaves 1+ goals
64%
Chaves 2+ goals
28%
Chaves 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Portimonense (draw refunded)
63%
Chaves (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portimonense at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 103 matches

Chaves away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portimonense attack 1.12 + Chaves defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chaves attack 0.75 + Portimonense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Portimonense scores more
46%
level
27%
Chaves scores more
27%

Portimonense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portimonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portimonense vs Chaves

Portimonense beat Chaves 2-1 in Primeira Liga on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão in Portimão.