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Portici vs Ostia Mare — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Portici
Portici
PST
13:00
Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
4/26/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 33Stadio San Ciro (Portici)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Portici35%
×Draw24%
Ostia Mare41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portici
1.44
Ostia Mare
1.58

Ostia Mare creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 48 away

creates per match

Portici
1.73
Ostia Mare
1.60

allows per match

Portici
1.57
Ostia Mare
1.15

finishing

Portici+0.00on par
Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portici ↓

Ostia Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Portici or draw
59%
Portici or Ostia Mare
76%
Draw or Ostia Mare
65%

Winning margin

Portici wins by 2+
16%
Ostia Mare wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Portici 1+ goals
76%
Portici 2+ goals
42%
Portici 3+ goals
18%
Ostia Mare 1+ goals
79%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
47%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Portici (draw refunded)
46%
Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portici at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portici attack 1.73 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Portici defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Portici scores more
35%
level
24%
Ostia Mare scores more
41%

Ostia Mare at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portici face Ostia Mare (Serie D - Girone G)

Serie D - Girone G returns with Portici hosting Ostia Mare. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Portici host Ostia Mare at Stadio San Ciro (Portici).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.