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Portadown vs Coleraine FC — League #408 2026

Portadown
Portadown
Preview
14:00
Coleraine FC
Coleraine FC
8/29/2026League #408League #408 · Round 4Shamrock Park
Big match
39%
Coleraine FC
model favours
35%26%39%

Coleraine FC are unbeaten in 12 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Portadown35%
×Draw26%
Coleraine FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portadown
1.30
Coleraine FC
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 30 away

creates per match

Portadown
1.13
Coleraine FC
1.33

allows per match

Portadown
1.44
Coleraine FC
1.47

finishing

Portadown+0.00on par
Coleraine FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portadown ↓

Coleraine FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Portadown or draw
61%
Portadown or Coleraine FC
74%
Draw or Coleraine FC
65%

Winning margin

Portadown wins by 2+
15%
Coleraine FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Portadown 1+ goals
73%
Portadown 2+ goals
37%
Portadown 3+ goals
14%
Coleraine FC 1+ goals
75%
Coleraine FC 2+ goals
40%
Coleraine FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Portadown (draw refunded)
47%
Coleraine FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portadown at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Coleraine FC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portadown attack 1.13 + Coleraine FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Coleraine FC attack 1.33 + Portadown defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Portadown scores more
35%
level
26%
Coleraine FC scores more
39%

Coleraine FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Coleraine FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Coleraine FC have won 5 in a row
  • Coleraine FC have scored in 13 games running
  • Coleraine FC have won 9 of the last 10 meetings
  • When Coleraine FC score first, they win 82% of the time

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Portadown
WLDW
FC
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portadown vs Coleraine FC — Match Preview

Portadown face Coleraine FC on August 29, 2026 in this League #408 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Portadown host Coleraine FC at Shamrock Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.