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Port Vale vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
5/8/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 46Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Port Vale37%
×Draw27%
Mansfield Town35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.25
Mansfield Town
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 136 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.37
Mansfield Town
1.38

allows per match

Port Vale
1.05
Mansfield Town
1.13

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
65%
Port Vale or Mansfield Town
73%
Draw or Mansfield Town
63%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
16%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
71%
Port Vale 2+ goals
36%
Port Vale 3+ goals
13%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
70%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
34%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
51%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 115 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.37 + Mansfield Town defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mansfield Town attack 1.38 + Port Vale defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Port Vale scores more
37%
level
27%
Mansfield Town scores more
35%

Port Vale at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Mansfield Town

Mansfield Town beat Port Vale 3-0 in League Two on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.