Port Vale 2–2 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Port Vale

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mansfield Town

N. Smith 90+4'

M. Cullen 45+4'

D. Rose 75' (pen)

K. Gordon 14'

9/21/2019

League Two · Round 10Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Port Vale37%

×Draw27%

Mansfield Town35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Port ValeExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.21

Port Vale

1.25

Mansfield Town

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 136 away

1.37

creates per match

1.38

1.05

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Port Vale

1.37

Mansfield Town

1.38

allows per match

Port Vale

1.05

Mansfield Town

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw

65%

Port Vale or Mansfield Town

73%

Draw or Mansfield Town

63%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+

16%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals

71%

Port Vale 2+ goals

36%

Port Vale 3+ goals

13%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

70%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

34%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)

51%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 115 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.37 + Mansfield Town defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mansfield Town attack 1.38 + Port Vale defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Port Vale scores more

37%

level

27%

Mansfield Town scores more

35%

Port Vale at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

D. Rose

Mansfield Town · F

7.6

Match Events

14'

15'

24'

26'

33'

45+4'

66'

75'

D. RosePenalty

77'

Leon Legge

82'

R. Bennett← R. Lloyd

86'

A. MacDonald← O. Khan

87'

Richard Bennett

87'

Hayden White

90+4'

N. Smith↳ J. Taylor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortMansfield

Overview

51%Possession49%

6Total Shots13

4Corners5

19Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots13

3On Target6

2Off Target7

1Blocked0

5Inside Box8

1Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

356Total Passes325

231Accurate Passes215

65%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls15

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2