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Port Melbourne vs Green Gully — Victoria NPL 2026

Port Melbourne
Port Melbourne
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Green Gully
Green Gully
3/5/2022Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 3SS Anderson Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Port Melbourne44%
×Draw25%
Green Gully31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Melbourne
1.57
Green Gully
1.29

Port Melbourne creates 22% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 87 away

creates per match

Port Melbourne
1.62
Green Gully
1.32

allows per match

Port Melbourne
1.27
Green Gully
1.52

finishing

Port Melbourne+0.00on par
Green Gully+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Melbourne ↓

Green Gully →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Port Melbourne or draw
69%
Port Melbourne or Green Gully
75%
Draw or Green Gully
56%

Winning margin

Port Melbourne wins by 2+
22%
Green Gully wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Port Melbourne 1+ goals
79%
Port Melbourne 2+ goals
46%
Port Melbourne 3+ goals
21%
Green Gully 1+ goals
72%
Green Gully 2+ goals
37%
Green Gully 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Port Melbourne (draw refunded)
58%
Green Gully (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Melbourne at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 78 matches

Green Gully away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Melbourne attack 1.62 + Green Gully defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.57

Green Gully attack 1.32 + Port Melbourne defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Port Melbourne scores more
44%
level
25%
Green Gully scores more
31%

Port Melbourne at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Port Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Port Melbourne vs Green Gully

Port Melbourne beat Green Gully 2-0 in Victoria NPL on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at SS Anderson Reserve in Melbourne.