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Port Darwin vs Hellenic Athletic — League #193 2026

Port Darwin
Port Darwin
FT
1 – 2
Hellenic Athletic
Hellenic Athletic
8/10/2012League #193League #193 · Round 6Darwin Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Port Darwin12%
×Draw15%
Hellenic Athletic74%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Darwin
1.14
Hellenic Athletic
2.97

Hellenic Athletic creates 161% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

creates per match

Port Darwin
1.14
Hellenic Athletic
2.97

allows per match

Port Darwin
2.97
Hellenic Athletic
1.14

finishing

Port Darwin+0.00on par
Hellenic Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Darwin ↓

Hellenic Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Port Darwin or draw
26%
Port Darwin or Hellenic Athletic
85%
Draw or Hellenic Athletic
88%

Winning margin

Port Darwin wins by 2+
4%
Hellenic Athletic wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Port Darwin 1+ goals
68%
Port Darwin 2+ goals
32%
Port Darwin 3+ goals
11%
Hellenic Athletic 1+ goals
95%
Hellenic Athletic 2+ goals
79%
Hellenic Athletic 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Port Darwin (draw refunded)
14%
Hellenic Athletic (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Darwin at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.97 · 29 matches

Hellenic Athletic away — creates 2.97, concedes 1.14 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Darwin attack 1.14 + Hellenic Athletic defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.14

Hellenic Athletic attack 2.97 + Port Darwin defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Port Darwin scores more
12%
level
15%
Hellenic Athletic scores more
74%

Hellenic Athletic at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Hellenic Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #193: Port Darwin 1–2 Hellenic Athletic

Hellenic Athletic beat Port Darwin 2-1 in League #193 on August 10, 2012.

The match was played at Darwin Football Stadium.