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Pordenone vs Cremonese — Serie B 2018

Pordenone
Pordenone
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cremonese
Cremonese
12/29/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 19Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Pordenone37%
×Draw28%
Cremonese36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pordenone
1.21
Cremonese
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 117 away

creates per match

Pordenone
1.22
Cremonese
1.23

allows per match

Pordenone
1.16
Cremonese
1.19

finishing

Pordenone+0.00on par
Cremonese+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pordenone ↓

Cremonese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pordenone or draw
64%
Pordenone or Cremonese
72%
Draw or Cremonese
63%

Winning margin

Pordenone wins by 2+
16%
Cremonese wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pordenone 1+ goals
70%
Pordenone 2+ goals
34%
Pordenone 3+ goals
12%
Cremonese 1+ goals
70%
Cremonese 2+ goals
33%
Cremonese 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pordenone (draw refunded)
51%
Cremonese (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pordenone at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Cremonese away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.19 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pordenone attack 1.22 + Cremonese defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cremonese attack 1.23 + Pordenone defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pordenone scores more
37%
level
28%
Cremonese scores more
36%

Pordenone at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pordenone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Pordenone 1–0 Cremonese

Pordenone beat Cremonese 1-0 in Serie B on December 29, 2019.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.