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Pordenone U19 vs Parma U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Pordenone U19
Pordenone U19
FT
1 – 2
Parma U19
Parma U19
2/6/2021Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 8Stadio Ottavio Bottecchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Pordenone U1917%
×Draw20%
Parma U1964%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pordenone U19
1.00
Parma U19
2.16

Parma U19 creates 116% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 70 away

creates per match

Pordenone U19
0.97
Parma U19
2.00

allows per match

Pordenone U19
2.31
Parma U19
1.03

finishing

Pordenone U19+0.00on par
Parma U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pordenone U19 ↓

Parma U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pordenone U19 or draw
36%
Pordenone U19 or Parma U19
80%
Draw or Parma U19
83%

Winning margin

Pordenone U19 wins by 2+
6%
Parma U19 wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Pordenone U19 1+ goals
63%
Pordenone U19 2+ goals
26%
Pordenone U19 3+ goals
8%
Parma U19 1+ goals
88%
Parma U19 2+ goals
63%
Parma U19 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Pordenone U19 (draw refunded)
21%
Parma U19 (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pordenone U19 at home — creates 0.97, concedes 2.31 · 39 matches

Parma U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pordenone U19 attack 0.97 + Parma U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00

Parma U19 attack 2.00 + Pordenone U19 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pordenone U19 scores more
17%
level
20%
Parma U19 scores more
64%

Parma U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Parma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Pordenone U19 1–2 Parma U19

Parma U19 beat Pordenone U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Ottavio Bottecchia in Pordenone.