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Popayan vs Huila — Primera B 2018

Popayan
Popayan
CANC
20:00
Huila
Huila
10/17/2020Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 14Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Popayan36%
×Draw30%
Huila34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Popayan
1.07
Huila
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 129 home / 89 away

creates per match

Popayan
0.99
Huila
1.01

allows per match

Popayan
1.08
Huila
1.16

finishing

Popayan+0.00on par
Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Popayan ↓

Huila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Popayan or draw
66%
Popayan or Huila
70%
Draw or Huila
64%

Winning margin

Popayan wins by 2+
14%
Huila wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Popayan 1+ goals
66%
Popayan 2+ goals
29%
Popayan 3+ goals
9%
Huila 1+ goals
65%
Huila 2+ goals
28%
Huila 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Popayan (draw refunded)
51%
Huila (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Popayan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.08 · 129 matches

Huila away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.16 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Popayan attack 0.99 + Huila defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.07

Huila attack 1.01 + Popayan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Popayan scores more
36%
level
30%
Huila scores more
34%

Popayan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Popayan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Popayan host Huila

October 17, 2020: Popayan take on Huila in Primera B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Popayan host Huila at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.