Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pontypridd Town vs Newport City — League #111 2026

Pontypridd Town
Pontypridd Town
Preview
19:30
Newport City
Newport City
2/19/2027League #111League #111 · South - 24USW Sports Park
46%
Pontypridd Town
model favours
46%23%31%
1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pontypridd Town46%
×Draw23%
Newport City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontypridd Town
1.77
Newport City
1.42

Pontypridd Town creates 25% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Pontypridd Town
2.33
Newport City
1.40

allows per match

Pontypridd Town
1.44
Newport City
1.20

finishing

Pontypridd Town+0.00on par
Newport City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontypridd Town ↓

Newport City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Pontypridd Town or draw
69%
Pontypridd Town or Newport City
77%
Draw or Newport City
54%

Winning margin

Pontypridd Town wins by 2+
25%
Newport City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pontypridd Town 1+ goals
83%
Pontypridd Town 2+ goals
53%
Pontypridd Town 3+ goals
26%
Newport City 1+ goals
76%
Newport City 2+ goals
41%
Newport City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pontypridd Town (draw refunded)
60%
Newport City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontypridd Town at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Newport City away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontypridd Town attack 2.33 + Newport City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Newport City attack 1.40 + Pontypridd Town defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pontypridd Town scores more
46%
level
23%
Newport City scores more
31%

Pontypridd Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pontypridd Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Town
DDWDD
City
LLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pontypridd Town vs Newport City — Match Preview

Pontypridd Town face Newport City on February 19, 2027 in this League #111 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Pontypridd Town host Newport City at USW Sports Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.