Pontypridd Town 8–1 Afan Lido: Result & Stats

Pontypridd Town

FT

8 – 1

Afan Lido

P. Morgan 89'

D. Fahiya 76', 72'

J. Knott 74'

A. Lewis 69'

S. Johnson 64', 32'

G. Beddard 17'

J. Edwards 12' (pen)

12/3/2021

League #111 · South - 16USW Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Pontypridd Town60%

×Draw20%

Afan Lido21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pontypridd TownExpected goals in this matchAfan Lido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.28

Pontypridd Town

2.29

Afan Lido

1.28

Pontypridd Town creates 79% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 33 away

2.33

creates per match

1.12

1.44

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Pontypridd Town

2.33

Afan Lido

1.12

allows per match

Pontypridd Town

1.44

Afan Lido

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pontypridd Town+0.00on par

Afan Lido+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontypridd Town ↓

Afan Lido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Pontypridd Town or draw

79%

Pontypridd Town or Afan Lido

80%

Draw or Afan Lido

40%

Winning margin

Pontypridd Town wins by 2+

38%

Afan Lido wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Pontypridd Town 1+ goals

90%

Pontypridd Town 2+ goals

66%

Pontypridd Town 3+ goals

40%

Afan Lido 1+ goals

72%

Afan Lido 2+ goals

37%

Afan Lido 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pontypridd Town (draw refunded)

74%

Afan Lido (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontypridd Town at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Afan Lido away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontypridd Town attack 2.33 + Afan Lido defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.29

Afan Lido attack 1.12 + Pontypridd Town defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pontypridd Town scores more

60%

level

20%

Afan Lido scores more

21%

Pontypridd Town at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pontypridd Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

J. EdwardsPenalty

17'

G. Beddard

32'

S. Johnson

64'

S. Johnson

69'

72'

74'

76'

89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff