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Pontevedra vs UD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontevedra
Pontevedra
Preview
16:00
UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
3/21/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29
44%
Pontevedra
model favours
44%28%28%

Pontevedra and UD Logroñés have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pontevedra44%
×Draw28%
UD Logroñés28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontevedra
1.32
UD Logroñés
1.00

Pontevedra creates 32% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 18 away

creates per match

Pontevedra
1.31
UD Logroñés
1.06

allows per match

Pontevedra
0.95
UD Logroñés
1.33

finishing

Pontevedra+0.00on par
UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra ↓

UD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pontevedra or draw
72%
Pontevedra or UD Logroñés
72%
Draw or UD Logroñés
56%

Winning margin

Pontevedra wins by 2+
20%
UD Logroñés wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pontevedra 1+ goals
73%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
38%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
15%
UD Logroñés 1+ goals
63%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
26%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra (draw refunded)
61%
UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra attack 1.31 + UD Logroñés defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Pontevedra defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pontevedra scores more
44%
level
28%
UD Logroñés scores more
28%

Pontevedra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Pontevedra
DLWDD
Logroñés
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Pontevedra host UD Logroñés

March 21, 2027: Pontevedra take on UD Logroñés in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.