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Pontevedra vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontevedra
Pontevedra
Preview
15:00
Real Unión
Real Unión
5/16/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37
49%
Pontevedra
model favours
49%26%25%

Real Unión score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Pontevedra49%
×Draw26%
Real Unión25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontevedra
1.48
Real Unión
0.96

Pontevedra creates 54% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 56 away

creates per match

Pontevedra
1.31
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

Pontevedra
0.95
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

Pontevedra+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pontevedra or draw
75%
Pontevedra or Real Unión
74%
Draw or Real Unión
51%

Winning margin

Pontevedra wins by 2+
25%
Real Unión wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pontevedra 1+ goals
77%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
43%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
19%
Real Unión 1+ goals
62%
Real Unión 2+ goals
25%
Real Unión 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra (draw refunded)
67%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra attack 1.31 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Pontevedra defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pontevedra scores more
49%
level
26%
Real Unión scores more
25%

Pontevedra at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 79% of Real Unión’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Real Unión have scored in 7 games running
  • Real Unión win just 21% against the top half (vs 51% against the bottom)
  • Pontevedra and Real Unión have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Pontevedra
DLWDD
Unión
WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pontevedra vs Real Unión — Match Preview

Pontevedra face Real Unión on May 16, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.