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Pontevedra vs Real Avilés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontevedra
Pontevedra
Preview
15:00
Real Avilés
Real Avilés
4/18/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33
44%
Pontevedra
model favours
44%24%32%

Real Avilés win just 10% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pontevedra44%
×Draw24%
Real Avilés32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontevedra
1.66
Real Avilés
1.40

Pontevedra creates 19% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pontevedra
1.31
Real Avilés
1.84

allows per match

Pontevedra
0.95
Real Avilés
2.00

finishing

Pontevedra+0.00on par
Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra ↓

Real Avilés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pontevedra or draw
68%
Pontevedra or Real Avilés
76%
Draw or Real Avilés
56%

Winning margin

Pontevedra wins by 2+
23%
Real Avilés wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Pontevedra 1+ goals
81%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
49%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
23%
Real Avilés 1+ goals
75%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
41%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra (draw refunded)
57%
Real Avilés (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra attack 1.31 + Real Avilés defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Real Avilés attack 1.84 + Pontevedra defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pontevedra scores more
44%
level
24%
Real Avilés scores more
32%

Pontevedra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Pontevedra
DLWDD
Avilés
DLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pontevedra face Real Avilés (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Pontevedra hosting Real Avilés. Match starts April 18, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.