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Pontevedra vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontevedra
Pontevedra
Preview
15:00
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
9/6/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2
52%
Pontevedra
model favours
52%26%22%
1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pontevedra52%
×Draw26%
Arenas Getxo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontevedra
1.50
Arenas Getxo
0.87

Pontevedra creates 72% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pontevedra
1.31
Arenas Getxo
0.79

allows per match

Pontevedra
0.95
Arenas Getxo
1.68

finishing

Pontevedra+0.00on par
Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra ↓

Arenas Getxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pontevedra or draw
78%
Pontevedra or Arenas Getxo
74%
Draw or Arenas Getxo
48%

Winning margin

Pontevedra wins by 2+
27%
Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pontevedra 1+ goals
78%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
44%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
19%
Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
58%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
22%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra (draw refunded)
70%
Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra attack 1.31 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Arenas Getxo attack 0.79 + Pontevedra defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pontevedra scores more
52%
level
26%
Arenas Getxo scores more
22%

Pontevedra at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Pontevedra
DLWDD
Getxo
WDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pontevedra face Arenas Getxo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Pontevedra hosting Arenas Getxo. Match starts September 6, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.