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Ponte Preta U20 vs Jabaquara U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
Preview
18:00
Jabaquara U20
Jabaquara U20
8/7/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 10
63%
Ponte Preta U20
model favours
63%20%16%

Ponte Preta U20 and Jabaquara U20 have never met before

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ponte Preta U2063%
×Draw20%
Jabaquara U2016%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponte Preta U20
2.08
Jabaquara U20
0.94

Ponte Preta U20 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ponte Preta U20
1.91
Jabaquara U20
0.71

allows per match

Ponte Preta U20
1.17
Jabaquara U20
2.24

finishing

Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par
Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta U20 ↓

Jabaquara U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ponte Preta U20 or draw
84%
Ponte Preta U20 or Jabaquara U20
80%
Draw or Jabaquara U20
37%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
39%
Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
87%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
61%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
34%
Jabaquara U20 1+ goals
61%
Jabaquara U20 2+ goals
24%
Jabaquara U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
80%
Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta U20 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Jabaquara U20 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.91 + Jabaquara U20 defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.08

Jabaquara U20 attack 0.71 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ponte Preta U20 scores more
63%
level
20%
Jabaquara U20 scores more
16%

Ponte Preta U20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ponte Preta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
WLLDW
U20
LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ponte Preta U20 host Jabaquara U20

August 7, 2026: Ponte Preta U20 take on Jabaquara U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.