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Ponferradina vs Real Avilés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ponferradina
Ponferradina
Preview
15:00
Real Avilés
Real Avilés
10/11/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7
47%
Ponferradina
model favours
47%23%30%

90% of Ponferradina’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ponferradina47%
×Draw23%
Real Avilés30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina
1.75
Real Avilés
1.36

Ponferradina creates 29% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ponferradina
1.51
Real Avilés
1.84

allows per match

Ponferradina
0.89
Real Avilés
2.00

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par
Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Real Avilés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw
70%
Ponferradina or Real Avilés
77%
Draw or Real Avilés
53%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+
25%
Real Avilés wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals
83%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
52%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
25%
Real Avilés 1+ goals
74%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
39%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)
61%
Real Avilés (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.89 · 57 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.51 + Real Avilés defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Real Avilés attack 1.84 + Ponferradina defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ponferradina scores more
47%
level
23%
Real Avilés scores more
30%

Ponferradina at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Ponferradina’s matches
  • Ponferradina score first in only 30% of matches
  • Real Avilés win just 10% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
  • Ponferradina sit 4, Real Avilés 14 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ponferradina
LDWDW
Avilés
DLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ponferradina host Real Avilés

October 11, 2026: Ponferradina take on Real Avilés in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.