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Ponferradina vs Racing Ferrol — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ponferradina
Ponferradina
Preview
16:00
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
1/31/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22
41%
Ponferradina
model favours
41%29%30%

90% of Ponferradina’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ponferradina41%
×Draw29%
Racing Ferrol30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina
1.22
Racing Ferrol
1.00

Ponferradina creates 22% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 83 away

creates per match

Ponferradina
1.51
Racing Ferrol
1.10

allows per match

Ponferradina
0.89
Racing Ferrol
0.93

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw
70%
Ponferradina or Racing Ferrol
71%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
59%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+
18%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals
70%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
34%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
12%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
63%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
26%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)
58%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.89 · 57 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.51 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.22

Racing Ferrol attack 1.10 + Ponferradina defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ponferradina scores more
41%
level
29%
Racing Ferrol scores more
30%

Ponferradina at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Ponferradina’s matches
  • Ponferradina score first in only 30% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ponferradina
LDWDW
Ferrol
LDDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ponferradina host Racing Ferrol

January 31, 2027: Ponferradina take on Racing Ferrol in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.