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Ponferradina vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ponferradina
Ponferradina
Preview
16:00
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
1/3/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18
55%
Ponferradina
model favours
55%25%20%

90% of Ponferradina’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ponferradina55%
×Draw25%
Arenas Getxo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina
1.59
Arenas Getxo
0.84

Ponferradina creates 89% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ponferradina
1.51
Arenas Getxo
0.79

allows per match

Ponferradina
0.89
Arenas Getxo
1.68

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par
Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Arenas Getxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw
80%
Ponferradina or Arenas Getxo
75%
Draw or Arenas Getxo
45%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+
29%
Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals
80%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
47%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
21%
Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
57%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
21%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)
74%
Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.89 · 57 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.51 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

Arenas Getxo attack 0.79 + Ponferradina defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ponferradina scores more
55%
level
25%
Arenas Getxo scores more
20%

Ponferradina at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Ponferradina’s matches
  • Ponferradina score first in only 30% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ponferradina
LDWDW
Getxo
WDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ponferradina face Arenas Getxo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Ponferradina hosting Arenas Getxo. Match starts January 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.