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Polideportivo Almería vs El Ejido — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Polideportivo Almería
Polideportivo Almería
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
El Ejido
El Ejido
10/13/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 8Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Polideportivo Almería40%
×Draw27%
El Ejido34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polideportivo Almería
1.34
El Ejido
1.21

Polideportivo Almería creates 11% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 49 away

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería
1.26
El Ejido
1.16

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería
1.27
El Ejido
1.43

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par
El Ejido+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

El Ejido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw
66%
Polideportivo Almería or El Ejido
73%
Draw or El Ejido
60%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+
18%
El Ejido wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals
74%
Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals
39%
Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals
15%
El Ejido 1+ goals
70%
El Ejido 2+ goals
34%
El Ejido 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)
54%
El Ejido (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

El Ejido away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + El Ejido defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

El Ejido attack 1.16 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more
40%
level
27%
El Ejido scores more
34%

Polideportivo Almería at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs El Ejido

El Ejido beat Polideportivo Almería 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud Emilio Campra in Almería.