Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Polanka nad Odrou vs Slavoj Olympia Bruntál — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Polanka nad Odrou
Polanka nad Odrou
CANC
13:30
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
3/14/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 11Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Polanka nad Odrou67%
×Draw19%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polanka nad Odrou
2.25
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
0.94

Polanka nad Odrou creates 139% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 45 away

creates per match

Polanka nad Odrou
1.78
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
0.89

allows per match

Polanka nad Odrou
0.98
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
2.71

finishing

Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polanka nad Odrou ↓

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Polanka nad Odrou or draw
86%
Polanka nad Odrou or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
81%
Draw or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
33%

Winning margin

Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+
43%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals
89%
Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals
65%
Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals
39%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals
61%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals
24%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)
82%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polanka nad Odrou at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.25

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 0.89 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Polanka nad Odrou scores more
67%
level
19%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more
14%

Polanka nad Odrou at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Polanka nad Odrou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Polanka nad Odrou face Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (4. liga - Divizie F)

4. liga - Divizie F returns with Polanka nad Odrou hosting Slavoj Olympia Bruntál. Match starts March 14, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Polanka nad Odrou host Slavoj Olympia Bruntál at Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.