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Polanka nad Odrou vs Beskyd Frenštát — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Polanka nad Odrou
Polanka nad Odrou
CANC
15:00
Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
5/23/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 21Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Polanka nad Odrou60%
×Draw21%
Beskyd Frenštát19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polanka nad Odrou
2.08
Beskyd Frenštát
1.10

Polanka nad Odrou creates 89% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 60 away

creates per match

Polanka nad Odrou
1.78
Beskyd Frenštát
1.23

allows per match

Polanka nad Odrou
0.98
Beskyd Frenštát
2.37

finishing

Polanka nad Odrou+0.00on par
Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polanka nad Odrou ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Polanka nad Odrou or draw
81%
Polanka nad Odrou or Beskyd Frenštát
79%
Draw or Beskyd Frenštát
40%

Winning margin

Polanka nad Odrou wins by 2+
36%
Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Polanka nad Odrou 1+ goals
87%
Polanka nad Odrou 2+ goals
61%
Polanka nad Odrou 3+ goals
34%
Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
67%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
30%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Polanka nad Odrou (draw refunded)
75%
Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polanka nad Odrou at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polanka nad Odrou attack 1.78 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.08

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Polanka nad Odrou defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Polanka nad Odrou scores more
60%
level
21%
Beskyd Frenštát scores more
19%

Polanka nad Odrou at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Polanka nad Odrou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Polanka nad Odrou vs Beskyd Frenštát — Match Preview

Polanka nad Odrou face Beskyd Frenštát on May 23, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie F fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Polanka nad Odrou host Beskyd Frenštát at Hřiště Polanka nad Odrou.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.