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Poland U17 vs Montenegro U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Poland U17
Poland U17
Preview
14:00
Montenegro U17
Montenegro U17
11/17/2026UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 1
Big match
56%
Poland U17
model favours
56%22%22%

Top-of-the-table clash — Poland U17 3 vs Montenegro U17 1

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Poland U1756%
×Draw22%
Montenegro U1722%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poland U17
1.98
Montenegro U17
1.18

Poland U17 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

creates per match

Poland U17
2.50
Montenegro U17
1.23

allows per match

Poland U17
1.13
Montenegro U17
1.46

finishing

Poland U17+0.00on par
Montenegro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland U17 ↓

Montenegro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Poland U17 or draw
78%
Poland U17 or Montenegro U17
78%
Draw or Montenegro U17
44%

Winning margin

Poland U17 wins by 2+
33%
Montenegro U17 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Poland U17 1+ goals
86%
Poland U17 2+ goals
59%
Poland U17 3+ goals
31%
Montenegro U17 1+ goals
69%
Montenegro U17 2+ goals
33%
Montenegro U17 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Poland U17 (draw refunded)
71%
Montenegro U17 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland U17 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Montenegro U17 away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland U17 attack 2.50 + Montenegro U17 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.98

Montenegro U17 attack 1.23 + Poland U17 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Poland U17 scores more
56%
level
22%
Montenegro U17 scores more
22%

Poland U17 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Poland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U17
DWLDW
U17
LLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Poland U17 host Montenegro U17

November 17, 2026: Poland U17 take on Montenegro U17 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.