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Polaban Nymburk vs Sparta Kutná Hora — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
PST
14:30
Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
4/5/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 20Fotbalový štadión Polaban (Nymburk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Polaban Nymburk47%
×Draw19%
Sparta Kutná Hora34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polaban Nymburk
2.56
Sparta Kutná Hora
2.19

Polaban Nymburk creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 27 away

creates per match

Polaban Nymburk
1.20
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.07

allows per match

Polaban Nymburk
3.30
Sparta Kutná Hora
3.93

finishing

Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par
Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polaban Nymburk ↓

Sparta Kutná Hora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Polaban Nymburk or draw
66%
Polaban Nymburk or Sparta Kutná Hora
81%
Draw or Sparta Kutná Hora
53%

Winning margin

Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
28%
Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
92%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
72%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
46%
Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
89%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
64%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
58%
Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polaban Nymburk at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

Sparta Kutná Hora away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polaban Nymburk attack 1.20 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.56

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.07 + Polaban Nymburk defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Polaban Nymburk scores more
47%
level
19%
Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
34%

Polaban Nymburk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Polaban Nymburk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Polaban Nymburk host Sparta Kutná Hora

April 5, 2020: Polaban Nymburk take on Sparta Kutná Hora in 4. liga - Divizie C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Polaban Nymburk host Sparta Kutná Hora at Fotbalový štadión Polaban (Nymburk).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.