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Polaban Nymburk vs Kolín — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
PST
14:30
Kolín
Kolín
4/12/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 21Fotbalový štadión Polaban (Nymburk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Polaban Nymburk14%
×Draw16%
Kolín70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polaban Nymburk
1.24
Kolín
2.85

Kolín creates 130% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 25 away

creates per match

Polaban Nymburk
1.20
Kolín
2.40

allows per match

Polaban Nymburk
3.30
Kolín
1.28

finishing

Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par
Kolín+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polaban Nymburk ↓

Kolín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Polaban Nymburk or draw
30%
Polaban Nymburk or Kolín
84%
Draw or Kolín
86%

Winning margin

Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
5%
Kolín wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
71%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
35%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
13%
Kolín 1+ goals
94%
Kolín 2+ goals
77%
Kolín 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
17%
Kolín (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polaban Nymburk at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

Kolín away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polaban Nymburk attack 1.20 + Kolín defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.24

Kolín attack 2.40 + Polaban Nymburk defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Polaban Nymburk scores more
14%
level
16%
Kolín scores more
70%

Kolín at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kolín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Polaban Nymburk face Kolín (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C returns with Polaban Nymburk hosting Kolín. Match starts April 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Polaban Nymburk host Kolín at Fotbalový štadión Polaban (Nymburk).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.