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Pohronie vs Lokomotíva Zvolen — 2. liga 2019

Pohronie
Pohronie
Preview
16:00
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
3/26/20272. liga2. liga · Round 22
Big match
45%
Pohronie
model favours
45%24%30%

Pohronie score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pohronie45%
×Draw24%
Lokomotíva Zvolen30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pohronie
1.63
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.29

Pohronie creates 26% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 30 away

creates per match

Pohronie
1.78
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.17

allows per match

Pohronie
1.41
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.47

finishing

Pohronie+0.00on par
Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohronie ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pohronie or draw
70%
Pohronie or Lokomotíva Zvolen
76%
Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen
55%

Winning margin

Pohronie wins by 2+
23%
Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pohronie 1+ goals
80%
Pohronie 2+ goals
48%
Pohronie 3+ goals
22%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
72%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
37%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pohronie (draw refunded)
60%
Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohronie at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.41 · 58 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohronie attack 1.78 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.63

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.17 + Pohronie defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pohronie scores more
45%
level
24%
Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
30%

Pohronie at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pohronie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 90% of Pohronie’s matches
  • Pohronie win just 19% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Pohronie
LWLWW
Zvolen
DDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Pohronie host Lokomotíva Zvolen

March 26, 2027: Pohronie take on Lokomotíva Zvolen in 2. liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.