Pohang Steelers 1–0 Gwangju FC: Result & Stats

Pohang Steelers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gwangju FC

3/17/2024

K League 1 · Round 3Steelyard Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Pohang Steelers45%

×Draw27%

Gwangju FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pohang SteelersExpected goals in this matchGwangju FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.04

Pohang Steelers

1.40

Gwangju FC

1.04

Pohang Steelers creates 35% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 97 away

1.33

creates per match

0.98

1.10

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Pohang Steelers

1.33

Gwangju FC

0.98

allows per match

Pohang Steelers

1.10

Gwangju FC

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Gwangju FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pohang Steelers ↓

Gwangju FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pohang Steelers or draw

72%

Pohang Steelers or Gwangju FC

73%

Draw or Gwangju FC

55%

Winning margin

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+

22%

Gwangju FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals

75%

Pohang Steelers 2+ goals

41%

Pohang Steelers 3+ goals

17%

Gwangju FC 1+ goals

65%

Gwangju FC 2+ goals

28%

Gwangju FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)

62%

Gwangju FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pohang Steelers at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 156 matches

Gwangju FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.47 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pohang Steelers attack 1.33 + Gwangju FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Gwangju FC attack 0.98 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pohang Steelers scores more

45%

level

27%

Gwangju FC scores more

28%

Pohang Steelers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pohang Steelers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff