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Pogon Tczew W vs Pogon Szczecin W — Ekstraliga Women 2023

Pogon Tczew W
Pogon Tczew W
FT
1 – 6
Pogon Szczecin W
Pogon Szczecin W
11/12/2023Ekstraliga WomenEkstraliga Women · Round 10Stadion Ceglarska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Pogon Tczew W10%
×Draw14%
Pogon Szczecin W76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogon Tczew W
0.92
Pogon Szczecin W
2.82

Pogon Szczecin W creates 207% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

creates per match

Pogon Tczew W
1.12
Pogon Szczecin W
2.66

allows per match

Pogon Tczew W
2.97
Pogon Szczecin W
0.72

finishing

Pogon Tczew W+0.00on par
Pogon Szczecin W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Tczew W ↓

Pogon Szczecin W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–210%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Pogon Tczew W or draw
24%
Pogon Tczew W or Pogon Szczecin W
86%
Draw or Pogon Szczecin W
90%

Winning margin

Pogon Tczew W wins by 2+
3%
Pogon Szczecin W wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Pogon Tczew W 1+ goals
60%
Pogon Tczew W 2+ goals
23%
Pogon Tczew W 3+ goals
7%
Pogon Szczecin W 1+ goals
94%
Pogon Szczecin W 2+ goals
77%
Pogon Szczecin W 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Pogon Tczew W (draw refunded)
11%
Pogon Szczecin W (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Tczew W at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.97 · 33 matches

Pogon Szczecin W away — creates 2.66, concedes 0.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Tczew W attack 1.12 + Pogon Szczecin W defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.92

Pogon Szczecin W attack 2.66 + Pogon Tczew W defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Pogon Tczew W scores more
10%
level
14%
Pogon Szczecin W scores more
76%

Pogon Szczecin W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogon Tczew W vs Pogon Szczecin W

Pogon Szczecin W beat Pogon Tczew W 6-1 in Ekstraliga Women on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ceglarska in Tczew.