Pogon Szczecin 1–1 Raków Częstochowa

Pogon Szczecin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Raków Częstochowa

11/12/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 15Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Pogon Szczecin43%

×Draw23%

Raków Częstochowa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogon SzczecinExpected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.54

Pogon Szczecin

1.75

Raków Częstochowa

1.54

Pogon Szczecin creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

2.17

creates per match

1.57

1.50

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin

2.17

Raków Częstochowa

1.57

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin

1.50

Raków Częstochowa

1.33

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Pogon Szczecin-0.09on par

Raków Częstochowa-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin ↓

Raków Częstochowa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin or draw

66%

Pogon Szczecin or Raków Częstochowa

77%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa

57%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+

23%

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals

83%

Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals

52%

Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals

25%

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals

79%

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

45%

Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)

56%

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.50 · 13 matches

Raków Częstochowa away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin attack 2.17 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.57 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pogon Szczecin scores more

43%

level

23%

Raków Częstochowa scores more

34%

Pogon Szczecin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff