Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Chrobry Głogów

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Preview

15:00

Chrobry Głogów

4/10/2027

I Liga · Round 27Stadion Miejski

49%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

model favours

49%24%27%

Chrobry Głogów score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki49%

×Draw24%

Chrobry Głogów27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiExpected goals in this matchChrobry Głogów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.18

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.70

Chrobry Głogów

1.18

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 40 away

1.88

creates per match

0.95

1.41

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.88

Chrobry Głogów

0.95

allows per match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.41

Chrobry Głogów

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki ↓

Chrobry Głogów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw

73%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or Chrobry Głogów

76%

Draw or Chrobry Głogów

51%

Winning margin

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins by 2+

27%

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1+ goals

82%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2+ goals

51%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3+ goals

24%

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

69%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

33%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)

65%

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack 1.88 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.70

Chrobry Głogów attack 0.95 + Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scores more

49%

level

24%

Chrobry Głogów scores more

27%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Chrobry Głogów have scored in 12 games running
83% of Chrobry Głogów’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Mazowiecki

DDWLD

Głogów

WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff